Modi Boosts India Outlook as Morgan Stanley Forecast Raised

The Indian rupee weakened for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, weighed down by large demand for dollars from importers and after foreign investors turned sellers of domestic shares for the first time in about a month. Foreign investors sold Indian cash shares worth a net 1.04 billion rupees ($17.8 million) on Tuesday. Although the sales were modest, it was their first sales since April 16, provisional data from the NSE and SEBI showed. The partially convertible rupee closed at 58.7750/7850 per dollar versus 58.63/64 on Tuesday.

 Today’s Headlines

1) India’s Rupee Falls Most in a Month on Importers’ Dollar Demand
2) Modi Boosts India Outlook as Morgan Stanley Forecast Raised
3) Japan Trade Deficit Shrinks as Tax Increase Crimps Imports
4) WTI Crude Rises to One-Month High on Supply Drop; Brent Advances
5) Pound Rallies as Retail-Sales Jump Stokes Rates Bets

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The Indian rupee strengthened to an 11-month high

The Indian rupee strengthened to an 11-month high on Monday, gaining for a fourth consecutive session as strong foreign inflows led domestic equities to record closing highs after the election of a new government to be led by Narendra Modi. However, continued central bank dollar-buying capped broader gains, with traders expecting the Reserve Bank of India to continue stepping in as it looks to build up its foreign exchange reserves. Data on Friday showed India's dollar reserves surged to a more than two-year high of $313.83 billion for the week to May 9, the highest since Nov. 11, 2011.

 Today’s Headlines

1) Gold Climbs on Speculation of India Relaxing Import Restrictions
2) India’s Rupee Advances to 11-Month High After BJP Wins Majority
3) Yen Rises to 3-Month High versus Dollar on Risk Aversion
4) Pound Falls versus Euro as Carney Warns of Housing Risks
5) Kenyan Shilling Slumps on Concern Attacks May Cut Tourism

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Euro Falls to Two-Month Low versus Yen on ECB Bets

The Indian rupee rose on Tuesday to its strongest close against the dollar in nearly 10 months as shares surged to record highs after exit polls showed opposition Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies clinching a majority in the country's elections. Markets have been already pricing in a win by the BJP, hoping that the coalition led by Narendra Modi would revive an economy growing at its slowest pace in a decade and attract more foreign investment. J.P.Morgan estimates that RBI interventions since February have totaled nearly $20 billion, with an estimated $4.1 billion in dollar purchases since the start of May, according to a note on Tuesday.

 

Today’s Headlines

1) Euro Falls to Two-Month Low versus Yen on ECB Bets
2) Pound Weakens as Rate-Increase Bets Pushed Back After BOE
3) Ukraine Crisis Weighs on East Europe as EBRD Meets
4) Former BOJ Policy Maker Sees Japan Inflation Dilemma
5) WTI Rises for Third Day as Cushing Stockpiles Drop

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Traders expect the rupee to continue to hold in a tight 59.80 to 60.20 per dollar

The Indian rupee gained for a second consecutive session on Friday to a near one-month high, sparking suspected central bank intervention after shares surged to a record high on hopes the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party would win a majority in elections ending next week. Traders expect the rupee to continue to hold in a tight 59.80 to 60.20 per dollar on Monday ahead of exit polls due to be released after 1830 India time. Though these polls have proved unreliable in previous elections, traders expect to get some clarity on what the final results to be released on May 16 may look like.

 Today’s Headlines

1) Asian Currencies Complete Weekly Advance Led by Philippine Peso
2) Euro Weakens Third Day on Outlook for ECB Stimulus
3) Deutsche Bank Currency Crown Lost to Citigroup on Volatility
4) Pound Set for Weekly Gain as U.K. Output Beats Analyst Estimates
5) Ukraine Renews Dialogue Offer as Russia Holds Army Drills

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The Indian rupee fell slightly!

The Indian rupee fell slightly on Wednesday, retreating from a one-month high hit earlier as a sharp fall in local shares and good dollar demand from oil importers offset corporate greenback sales and a lift from stronger Asian currencies.  Although the rupee rose to as high as 59.96 earlier in the session, its highest since April 9, on the back of a large corporate dollar sale, traders said sentiment remains cautious ahead of the outcome of the national elections on May 16, while exit polls will start to be disclosed on Monday. The partially convertible rupee closed at 60.135/145 per dollar compared with its previous close of 60.11/12.

Today’s Headlines

1) Pound Climbs to Nine-Week High Against Euro before BOE Decision.
2) Poland Holds Rate at Record Low as Ukraine Woes Threaten Growth.
3) Yen Advances to Three-Week High as Stocks Slump; Kiwi Declines.
4) Dollar Falls to Lowest Since October on Lower Yields.

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Trade Deficit in U.S. Shrank in March as Exports Increase!

The Indian rupee gained on Tuesday for its fourth session in five, aided by corporate dollar sales and stronger domestic shares, although continued caution ahead of the outcome of general elections next week limited sharper gains.  However, traders cited little impact after the HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index compiled by Markit, rose to 48.5 in April from 47.5 in March, but held stubbornly below the 50-mark that divides growth from contraction. The rupee was also aided by Indian shares that rose for a second consecutive session after overseas investors bought index futures worth 860 million rupees on Monday, snapping five days of selling in index futures.

Today’s Headlines

1) The euro climbed to a seven-week high versus the dollar
2) Trade Deficit in U.S. Shrank in March as Exports Increase
3) Pound Gains Most in 4 Weeks as U.K. Services Expand
4) Romania Keeps Rates at Record Low as Inflation to Quicken
5) Yuan Extends Rebound From 18-Month Low as Weakness Seen Overdone

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India’s Rupee Advances to One-Month High after U.S. Jobs Report!

The Indian rupee snapped a three-day rise and retreated from a near one-month high hit early on Monday as heavy dollar demand from oil refiners hurt while sentiment was also cautious ahead of the conclusion of general elections next week. Although the rupee has been helped by continued foreign inflows into equities, which helped the currency gain in each of the previous three sessions, overseas investors have turned sellers in index futures totaling 2.43 billion rupees over the five previous sessions until Friday. The one-month implied volatility in the spot rupee stood at 11.3 percent, not far from 12.2 percent hit on April 28, which was its highest since mid-November.

Today’s Headlines

1) India’s Rupee Advances to One-Month High after U.S. Jobs Report
2) Yen Climbs after China Data as Kuroda Touts Recovery
3) EU Cuts Euro-Area Growth Outlook as Inflation Seen Slower
4) Fed’s Fisher Says Economy Strengthening as Payrolls Rise
5) Pound Climbs to 4-Year High on U.K.’s Resurgent Economic Growth

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Dollar Declines versus Major Peers Amid Turmoil in Ukraine!

The Indian rupee rose to a three-week high on Friday, posting its first weekly gain in five, helped by dollar selling from state-run banks and tracking gains in regional currencies ahead of a key U.S. jobs growth data later in the day. The 0.7 percent gain in the rupee this week came on the back of large dollar sales by corporate and banks and a recovery in Asian currencies, offsetting a net $1.5 billion in foreign investor selling in debt markets last month that had previously pressured the local unit. The partially convertible rupee closed at 60.16/17 per dollar compared with 60.31/32 on Wednesday, after rising as high as 60.09, a level last seen on April 10.

Today’s Headlines

1) India’s Rupee Has Biggest Weekly Gain in a Month on Dollar Sales.
2) Pound Climbs to 4-Year High on U.K.’s Resurgent Economic Growth.
3) Mexican Peso Posts Longest Rally since November.
4) Brazilian Real Climbs on Speculation Rousseff Support Declining.
5) Dollar Declines versus Major Peers Amid Turmoil in Ukraine.

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Euro Climbs to Three-Week High!

The Indian rupee rose for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, boosted by large dollar sales
by exporters, but gains were capped by caution ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week and as shares fell to 2-1/2 week lows. The currency fell 0.7 percent in April after having hit an eight-month high of 59.5950 on April 2, as a rally in domestic shares stalled as India embarked on a five-week election process set to conclude next month. The monthly fall snapped a 4.6 percent rally over February and March sparked by heavy foreign buying of shares on the back of an improving domestic economy.

Today’s Headlines

1) Euro Climbs to Three-Week High as QE Bets Pared; Aussie Advances.
2) Fed to Keep Trimming Stimulus as Economy Shakes Off Stall.
3) WTI Trades at 4-Week Low as Crude Supplies Rise.
4) Pound Rises to Four-Year High as Manufacturing Beats Forecasts.
5) BOJ Inflation Confidence Seen Cutting Chance of Stimulus.

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Pound Falls From Near 4-Year High as U.K. GDP Misses Estimates

The Indian rupee strengthened on Tuesday on large dollar sales from companies, including exporters, while gains in Asian currencies helped support sentiment ahead of the outcome of the Federal Reserve's meeting this week. However, broader gains were capped as domestic shares fell for a third consecutive session, retreating from record highs hit on Friday, as momentum waned ahead of the conclusion of general elections next month. Global investors are largely awaiting the outcome of the two-day Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday, with the U.S. central bank widely expected to continue paring back its bond-buying monetary stimulus.

Today’s Headlines

1) Pound Falls From Near 4-Year High as U.K. GDP Misses Estimates
2) Yen Declines as Signs of Global Recovery Damp Demand; Won Gains
3) Draghi Tells German Lawmakers ECB Bond-Purchases Unlikely
4) Ruble Gains with Russian Bonds on ‘Mild’ Sanctions, Troop Pledge
5) Yellen’s Dots Dash Effort for Greater Fed Clarity on Rate Rises

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